Analysis of indices of extreme climate in the determination of landslide triggers in Tierras Altas

Abstract

Climate change is today one of the main problems at a global level, this research has the objective of determining extreme events associated with slope instability through an analysis of climatic indices. The Climpact software is used to input historical parameters of precipitation and temperature data in the province of Chiriquí. The meteorological stations were selected according to aspects such as location, different climatic and geomorphological responses, existing precipitation and temperature data, and minimum percentages of missing data. The analysis of climatic indices developed a comparison with extreme events. No significant increases in maximum temperatures are perceived, instead there is an increase in minimum temperatures, which implies a reduction in the margin of difference between the two; for rainfall, the trend shows less intensity, but an increase in the annual frequency of less intense rains. The behaviour of the data analysed can be mainly associated with the effects of climate change; this results in affectations in the slopes and the predisposition to the occurrence of landslides, producing infiltration cracks and preventing the slope from recovering, so that minor extreme events will generate affectations that did not usually occur for similar precipitation margins. The use of ERA5 provides satisfactory results when compared with historical meteorological data. An adjustment using correction factors and time lag would allow the model to be extrapolated, improving results in locations where no meteorological data is available, extending the possibility of regional and local applications.